气候变化对湘江流域降水气温和蒸发的影响变化预测
Climate Change Impact on Hydro-Climate Variables in the Xiangjiang Basin
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2013.21011, PDF, HTML,  被引量 下载: 3,772  浏览: 9,265  国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 肖 义*, 唐少华：湖南省水利厅；陈 华*, 胡林娟：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室
关键词: 气候变化；湘江；统计降尺度；气温；降水；蒸发；Climate Change; Xiangjiang Basin; Statistical Downscaling Method; Temperature; Precipitation; Evaporation
摘要: 通过收集和整理湘江流域历史水文气象资料，利用统计降尺度方法建立湘江流域气温、降水和蒸发等要素同全球气候模式大尺度因子的统计关系，分析和预测了未来湘江流域水文气象要素的变化情况。研究结果表明，未来2010~2099年湘江流域气温和蒸发有较明显的上升趋势，降水变化趋势不明显。
Abstract: Based on the collection of historical hydro-climate data, such as precipitation, temperature and evaporation in the Xiangjiang Basin, the relationship between the local hydro-climate variables and large scale climate predictors of GCM has been established by using Automated Statistical Downscaling model. The future change of those hydro-climate variables was predicted by using this technical frame during the period of 2010-2099 inthis basin. The results showed that temperature and evaporation will increase significantly, while precipitation has no significant change trend in future.
文章引用：肖义, 唐少华, 陈华, 胡林娟. 气候变化对湘江流域降水气温和蒸发的影响变化预测[J]. 水资源研究, 2013, 2(1): 70-75. http://dx.doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2013.21011

参考文献

[1] 气候变化国家评估报告编写委员会. 气候变化国家评估报告[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2007. China’s National Assessment Report on Climate Change Editing Committee. China’s national assessment report on climate change. Beijing: Science Publication, 2007. (in Chinese)
[2] IPCC. METZ, B., DAVIDSON, O. R., BOSCH, P. R., DAVE, R., MEYER, L. A., Eds. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group Ⅲ to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007.
[3] WILBY, R. L., WIGLEY, T. M. L. Downscaling general circula- tion model output: a review of methods and limitations. Progress in Physical Geography, 1997, 21(4): 530-548.
[4] XU, C. Y. From GCMs to river flow: A review of downscaling methods and hydrologic modelling approaches. Progress in Physical Geography, 1999, 23(2): 229-249.
[5] CHEN. H., XU, C.-Y. and GUO, S. L. Comparison of statistical downscaling methods and their performance in driving hydro- logical models in climate change study. Journal of Hydrology, 2012, 434-435: 36-45.
[6] XU, C.-Y., WIDÉN, E. and HALLDIN, S. Modelling hydrolo- gical consequences of climate change—Progress and challenges. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2005, 22(6): 789-797.
[7] CHEN, H., GUO, J., GUO, S. L., XU, C.-Y. and XIONG, W. Downscaling of daily precipitation from GCMs predictions in Hanjiang Basin using smooth support vector machine. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2010, 27(2): 274-284.
[8] HESSAMI, M., GACHON, P., OUARDA, T. B. M. J. and ST- HILAIRE, A. Automated regression-based statistical downscaling tool. Environmental Modelling and Software, 2008, 23: 813-834.