双支柱调控政策对我国房价波动的影响

The Influence of Double-Pillar Regulation Policy on the Fluctuation of House Price in China

摘要: 作为资产价格的重要组成部分，房价的波动会影响到金融稳定。近年来，监管部门采取了多种政策措施来控制房价。本文通过理论和实证，研究了双支柱调控政策对我国房价的调控效果，探讨了货币政策和宏观审慎政策的搭配效应。实证结果表明：货币政策和宏观审慎政策单独调控房价增长时都有较好的效果，两者之间也存在搭配效应。不同的政策工具搭配效应有所不同，货币政策和LTV的搭配效应对房价波动的调控效果最好。鉴于不同的货币政策工具和宏观审慎政策工具搭配后的实施效果不一，要根据情况合理搭配货币政策和宏观审慎政策。

Abstract: As an important part of asset prices, housing price fluctuations will affect financial stability. In recent years, the regulatory authorities have taken a variety of policy measures to control housing prices. Through theoretical and empirical research, this paper studies the regulation effect of double-pillar regulation policy on housing prices in China, and discusses the collocation effect of monetary policy and macro-prudential policy. The empirical analysis results show that monetary policy and macro-prudential policy have a good effect on housing price growth alone, and there is also a collocation effect between them. Different policy mixes have different collocation effects, and the collocation effects of monetary policy and LTV have the best regulatory effect on housing price fluctuations. As different monetary policy tools and macro-prudential policy tools have different implementation effects, monetary policy and macro-prudential policy should be reasonably matched according to the situation.