利率调控抑制物价上涨实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Benchmark Rate’s Effects on Rising Price

摘要: 本文在2005年7月我国汇改后经济出现新动向的背景下对货币政策绩效进行研究，为准确、有效利用货币政策工具进行内外均衡政策搭配奠定基础。通过对2005年7月~2011年6月的相关货币政策时间序列变量进行相应实证分析后发现：当前及一段时期内，用利率调控通胀并不可取，甚至有相反结果。最后提出了相关建议。

Abstract: This article reanalyze the effects of monetary policy instruments in the context of the new exchange rate regime from July 2005 to lay the foundation of using monetary instruments for internal- external equilibrium policy coordination both correctly and effectively. After analyzing the time series variates from July 2005 to June 2011, the article draws a conclusion that at present and for a period of time to come, using the instrument of interest rate to control China’s inflation can not work, even get an opposite response. Relative policies are proposed at last.