播期对秋闲田饲用高粱株高、叶茎比与干鲜比的回归分析

Regression Analysis of Different Sowing Times on Plant Height, Leaf Stem Ratio and DW/FW Ratio of Forage Sorghum in Autumn Idle Land

摘要: [目的]为了探索播期与秋闲田饲用高粱株高、叶茎比、干鲜比的线性回归预测模型。[方法]采用田间试验与线性回归分析的方法，对播期与饲用高粱株高、叶茎比、干鲜比的关系进行模拟和比较。[结果]播期对秋闲田饲用高粱株高、叶茎比、干鲜比具有重要影响，其株高、干鲜比随着播期的推迟而降低，其叶茎比随着播期的推迟而上升。构建了播期与株高、叶茎比、干鲜比关系的回归模型，株高与播期的回归模型为ŷ_高 = 234.725 − 5.005x，叶茎比与播期的回归模型为ŷ_叶 = 0.096 + 0.019x，干鲜比与播期的回归模型为ŷ_干 = 0.305 − 0.002x。在7月23日至8月30日之间的播期每推迟1 d，饲用高粱的株高平均降低5.005 cm，叶茎比平均增加0.019，干鲜比平均减少0.002。[结论]本研究构建的3个回归模型，为秋闲田饲用高粱生产提供了理论支撑。

Abstract: [Objective] The aim was to explore the linear regression prediction model of different sowing times and plant height, leaf stem ratio and DW/FW ratio of forage sorghum in autumn idle land. [Method] To different sowing times and plant height, leaf stem ratio and DW/FW ratio of forage sorghum for regression model analysis were simulated and compared by employing field plot experiment and linear regression analysis. [Results] The results showed that the forage sorghum sowing times on plant height, leaf stem ratio and DW/FW ratio have important influence, and its plant height and DW/FW ratio were decreased with the delay of sowing times, and its leaf stem ratio were increased with the delay of sowing times. To construct the regression model between sowing times and plant height, leaf stem ratio and DW/FW ratio, regression model of the plant height and sowing times is ŷ_h = 234.725 − 5.005x, model of the leaf stem ratio and sowing is ŷ_leaf = 0.096 + 0.019x, model of the DW/FW ratio and sowing is ŷ_dry = 0.305 − 0.002x. Between July 23rd and August 30th the sowing times were delayed 1 d, forage sorghum plant height was reduced by 5.005 cm on average, and the average leaf stem ratio was increased by 0.019, and the average DW/FW ratio was reduced by 0.002. [Conclusion] This study has constructed the three regression models, and will provide theoretical support for the production of Forage Sorghum in Autumn Idle Land.