北京市商品住房市场供求状态的非均衡分析

The Disequilibrium Model of Supply and Demand Status of Beijing Commercial Housing Market

摘要: 本文在分析北京市商品住房市场供求非均衡现状引起房价的持续上涨的基础上，构建了房地产供求的非均衡对数计量经济模型，得出了商品住房供求受人均可支配收入、商品住房价格、人们的预期、房地产成本、城市规模等因素影响的结论。进一步采用1994~2011年的相关商品住房统计数据进行实证分析，计算出了历年北京市商品住房市场有效供求的非均衡度，发现非均衡度可以灵敏的反映出北京市房地产市场有效供求关系的波动状态，并分三个阶段对非均衡度给予了现实的解释。最后，对北京商品住房市场向瓦尔拉斯均衡逼近，提出了相应的政策建议，可作为政府宏观调控的参考依据。

Abstract: This paper constructed the econometric model of demand and supply disequilibrium logarithm based on the analysis of sustained increases in housing prices caused by the unbalanced supply and demand situation in Beijing commercial housing market. The demand and supply of commercial housing were affected by per capital disposable income, commercial housing price, people’s expectations and the cost of housing, city scale etc. It is further carried out by the empirical re-search with 1994~2012 statistical data. Meanwhile, the disequilibrium degree index of the effective demand and supply of commodity housing that can reflect the undulation actual situation of Beijing commercial housing was calculated. Besides, this paper gave a realistic interpretation for the disequilibrium degree from three stages. Finally, it gave the corresponding policy recommen-dations about approximate approach to Watras equilibrium as reference for the government ma-croeconomic regulation and control.