基于实证分析的钻井米成本预测模型研究 Prediction Model Research of Drilling Cost Based on Positive Analysis

DOI: 10.12677/SA.2019.82042, PDF, HTML, XML, 下载: 328  浏览: 2,816

Abstract: Drilling investment is an important part of investment of oil and gas field development. Accurate and reasonable estimation and forecast of drilling cost have an important influence on the economic, reasonable and effective acquisition of the project. Drilling cost is the embodiment of a combination of cost. It is affected by micro factors such as management and technological innovation, also closely related to macro factors such as international oil prices and the economic situation of world, and macro factors directly affect micro factors and are the key factors that affect the cost of drilling. Therefore, from the macro point of view, based on the theory of econometrics, this paper makes a positive analysis on the quantitative relationship between international crude oil price, globe GDP and cost of drilling in this resource country, and among the three, in order to establish a forecast model for drilling costs. Research results show that: 1) Global GDP has a long-term one-way impact on the cost of oil drilling rice; 2) International crude oil prices have a long-term one-way impact on the cost of oil drilling rice; 3) There is an integration relationship among global GDP and international oil prices and drilling costs. VAR model was established with global GDP and international oil prices. Based on the above research, a forecast model of the cost of drilling rice in resource countries based on empirical research was established, and carried out Johansen co-integration test and Granger causality test. The historical drilling cost data of resource countries were further fitted and verified, and the error of forecast data is mainly about 10% - 20%, which proves that the forecast model can be applied in the evaluation of new overseas oil and gas projects.

1. 引言

2. 数据时间平稳性检验

2.1. 研究对象的数据选取

Table 1. Unit root test results

3. 全球GDP、国际油价对钻井成本影响实证研究

3.1. 全球GDP与钻井成本Johansen协整关系

Table 2. Global GDP and drilling costs Johansen co-examination results

3.2. 国际油价与钻井成本Johansen协整检验

Table 3. International oil price and drilling costs Johansen co-examination results

3.3. 全球GDP、国际油价有关的钻井成本Johansen协整检验

Table 4. Global GDP, international oil price related drilling costs Johansen co-test results

3.4. 全球GDP、国际油价与钻井成本Granger因果关系检验

Table 5. Granger causality test results for variables

4. 与全球GDP、国际油价有关的钻井成本预测模型

4.1. 钻井成本向量自回归(VAR)模型的建立

Figure 1. AR view inspection

4.2. 钻井成本VAR模型预测建立及验证

$\begin{array}{c}\text{LND}t=0.7316\text{LND}t-1-0.0299\text{LND}t-2-0.296864\text{LNG}t-1-0.1384\text{LNG}t-2\\ +0.3754\text{LNP}t-1-0.1406\text{LNP}t-2-3.8376\end{array}$ (1)

(2)

$\begin{array}{c}\text{LNP}t=0.4742\text{LND}t-1+0.1572\text{LND}t-2+0.4493\text{LNG}t-1-0.5612\text{LNG}t-2\\ +0.5285\text{LNP}t-1-0.2875\text{LNP}t-2+2.1812\end{array}$ (3)

$\text{LND}=0.555967\text{LNG}+0.711242\text{LNP}-13.53861$

Figure 2. Comparison of model forecast data with actual data

5. 结论

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