新疆气候变化特征及其对湖泊水资源的影响效应

Study on the Climate Change and Its Effects to Water Resources in Xinjiang

摘要: 通过对CRUTS2.0数据集所示的新疆近50年平均气温、降水资料的空间化分析和新疆29个气象观测站观测的近22年的年平均气温、降水等气象要素的定量化统计分析，以及对新疆典型湖泊水域面积变化等具有指示性意义的水资源要素指标进行研究，揭示了新疆气候变化特征及其对湖泊水资源的影响效应。结果表明：从变化趋势上看，自80年代后期以来，新疆的年平均气温表现出0.6℃/10年的增温趋势，其中，北疆地区年平均气温增幅为0.4℃/10年，南疆地区则为1.5℃/10年；在同一时期内，新疆的年总降水量增加了55%，其中，北疆地区年总降水量增幅为80.9 mm/10年，南疆地区则为54.2 mm/10年；从空间分布上看，气温升高的区域和降水量增加的区域具有较好的吻合性；在与新疆同期湖泊遥感水文资料的分析对比后发现，暖湿化气候趋势是湖泊水域面积等水资源要素增加的主导因素；通过艾比湖水域面积和同期新疆整体气象资料的分析，艾比湖水域面积与当年新疆降水量呈显著正相关，与新疆年均气温呈正相关，水域面积与降水量、气温的相关系数分别为R_降水 = 0.87、R_气温 = 0.57。

Abstract: Through spatial analysis of average temperature, annual precipitation in recent 50 years in Xinjiang from the CRUTS2.0 data set and the quantitative analysis of the same climatic factor in recent 22 years from the observation data for 29 observation points in Xinjiang, and by studding the water area change of main lakes, the climate change and its effects to water resources in Xinjiang were presented in this paper. The result shows that the average temperature in Xinjiang has been increased at the speed of 0.6˚C/10asince the end of 1980s, in northern Xinjiang increased at 0.4˚C/10 a，in southern Xinjiang at 1.5˚C/10 ain it; In the same period, the annual precipitation has been increased 55%, in northern Xinjiang increased with a rate of80.9 mm/10a, in southern Xinjiang with54.2 mm/10a; In the spatial charac- teristic of the changes, there are a better coincidence with the increased area of the average temperature and annual pre- cipitation; Analysis on the hydrological data of the same time shows that the warming and wetting climate in Xinjiang is the dominant factor that resulted the increasing tendency for water resources factor, as the water area of main lakes; By comparison the water area of Lake Aibi and the climatic data of Xinjiang, it shows that the water area of Lake Aibi is positively correlated with annual precipitation and average temperature in Xinjiang, the coefficient of the water area between annual precipitation and average temperature are R_P = 0.87 and R_T = 0.57 respectively.