# 基于统计建模下共享单车的调查分析与前景预测 Investigation and Prospect Forecast of Bicycle Sharing Based on Statistical Modeling

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As we enter the new era, bicycle sharing has become synonymous with green travel and easy health. However, any new type of business activity always comes with chaos in the beginning such as barbarous growth and disordered management. Bicycle sharing is no exception. Situations such as disordered placement and severe damage of bicycles are troubling the users. There are many factors affecting the satisfaction of users. This paper studies the basic characteristics of users and the objective factors that affect user satisfaction. Firstly, the independent test and the lining analysis are applied to the basic characteristics of the user, and the exploratory factor analysis and the confirmatory factor analysis are applied to the influencing factors. Secondly, the Logistic model is used to predict from the two aspects of the user’s basic characteristics and influencing factors. The results show that there is a significant relationship between the basic characteristics of users and user satisfaction. Safety hazards and green environmental protection have significant effects on user satisfaction.

1. 引言

2. 测量工具与模型

2.1. 李克特量表

2.2. 结构方程模型

Table 1. Five latent factors

3. 数据分析与处理

3.1. 问卷组成

1) 使用者的基本特征：性别、年龄、职业等；

2) 使用者的用车特征：使用频率、用车用途、用车期望等；

3) 客观影响因素：由23个题项组成的研究变量。

3.2. 数据清洗与检验

4. 模型建立与实证分析

4.1. 使用者认同度的列联分析

4.2. 探索性因子分析

Table 2. Basic feature type of users

Table 3. Basic feature test value

Table 4. Principal component cumulative contribution rate

Continued

Figure 1. Gravel map

$\begin{array}{l}{F}_{1}=-0.049{x}_{1}-0.086{x}_{2}+0.297{x}_{3}+0.296{x}_{4}+0.275{x}_{5}+0.272{x}_{6}+0.020{x}_{7}\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}-0.121{x}_{8}-0.077{x}_{9}-0.013{x}_{10}+0.063{x}_{11}+0.095{x}_{12}+0.130{x}_{13}-0.018{x}_{14}\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}+0.045{x}_{15}+0.034{x}_{16}+0.030{x}_{17}-0.206{x}_{18}-0.233{x}_{19}\end{array}$ ,

$\begin{array}{l}{F}_{2}=-0.065{x}_{1}-0.050{x}_{2}+0.017{x}_{3}-0.108{x}_{4}-0.006{x}_{5}+0.046{x}_{6}-0.199{x}_{7}\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}-0.001{x}_{8}-0.137{x}_{9}+0.125{x}_{10}+0.063{x}_{11}+0.322{x}_{12}+0.289{x}_{13}+0.266{x}_{14}\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}-0.123{x}_{15}-0.096{x}_{16}-0.095{x}_{17}+0.209{x}_{18}+0.230{x}_{19}\end{array}$ ,

$\begin{array}{l}{F}_{3}=-0.047{x}_{1}-0.077{x}_{2}-0.085{x}_{3}-0.021{x}_{4}-0.063{x}_{5}+0.272{x}_{6}-0.112{x}_{7}\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}-0.290{x}_{8}+0.012{x}_{9}-0.178{x}_{10}-0.155{x}_{11}-0.163{x}_{12}-0.140{x}_{13}-0.040{x}_{14}\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}+0.340{x}_{15}+0.325{x}_{16}+0.323{x}_{17}+0.132{x}_{18}+0.167{x}_{19}\end{array}$ ,

$\begin{array}{l}{F}_{4}=0.007{x}_{1}-0.003{x}_{2}-0.077{x}_{3}+0.013{x}_{4}+0.016{x}_{5}+0.026{x}_{6}+0.436{x}_{7}\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}+0.077{x}_{8}+0.430{x}_{9}+0.306{x}_{10}+0.193{x}_{11}-0.062{x}_{12}-0.070{x}_{13}-0.093{x}_{14}\\ \text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}\text{\hspace{0.17em}}-0.009{x}_{15}-0.015{x}_{16}-0.027{x}_{17}-0.092{x}_{18}-0.108{x}_{19}\end{array}$ ,

.

Table 6. Multiple linear regression parameter

(2)

4.3. 路径分析

Figure 2. Measurement modeling

Figure 3. Structural Equation Modeling

4.4. Logit模型构建——前景预测

Table 7. Model structure

$Logit{P}_{5}=\frac{\mathrm{exp}\left(3.330+1.829{F}_{1}+1.856{F}_{2}+2.313{F}_{3}+1.933{F}_{4}\right)}{1+\mathrm{exp}\left(3.330+1.829{F}_{1}+1.856{F}_{2}+2.313{F}_{3}+1.933{F}_{4}\right)}$ (3)

$\mathrm{ln}\left(\frac{P\left(y=5|x\right)}{P\left(y=1|x\right)}\right)=3.330+1.829{F}_{1}+1.856{F}_{2}+2.313{F}_{3}+1.933{F}_{4}$ (4)

$Logit{P}_{4}=\frac{\mathrm{exp}\left(4.265+0.758{F}_{1}+1.619{F}_{2}+2.313{F}_{3}+1.933{F}_{4}\right)}{1+\mathrm{exp}\left(4.265+0.758{F}_{1}+1.619{F}_{2}+2.313{F}_{3}+1.933{F}_{4}\right)}$ (5)

$\mathrm{ln}\left(\frac{P\left(y=4|x\right)}{P\left(y=1|x\right)}\right)=4.265+0.758{F}_{1}+1.619{F}_{2}+2.313{F}_{3}+1.933{F}_{4}$ (6)

Table 8. Model structure

4.5. 结论与建议

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