基于系统动力学的地铁客流预测研究

Subway Passenger Forecast Based on System Dynamics

摘要:

 基于系统动力学的理论和方法，通过分析影响地铁客流量的主客观因素，以及系统内各变量之间的因果关系，构建了客流预测的系统动力学模型，通过定量和定性相结合的方法，深刻剖析地铁客流变化的一般规律。本文以广州地铁3号线为例，建立了客流预测的系统动力学模型，用vensim软件进行了仿真，并就票价、服务水平等对客流的影响进行了进一步探讨。

Abstract: Based on system dynamics theory and method, through the analysis of the influence of subway traffic of the subjective and objective factors, and the causal relationship between the variables and the system, the system dynamics model of passenger flow prediction is built, furthermore, the general rule is found through a combination of quantitative and qualitative analysis. Taking Guangzhou Metro Line 3 as an example, the system dynamics model of the passenger flow prediction is established, and by using the Vensim software, a further study on the influence of the fare, the service level and so on is made.