山东半岛蓝色经济区城市建设的时空复杂性及其对策建议

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Urban Construction in Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone and Suggestions

摘要: 选取山东半岛蓝色经济区包括的6城市为研究样本，根据2007~2016年间的社会经济统计数据，结合2014年12月~2016年11月，该区域不同城市的空气在线月监测数据，运用双变量相关分析法分析了该区域经济因素、空气质量因素之间的相关性以及复杂的变化特征。结果表明：城镇人口数量显著影响地区生产总值和烟尘排放量，而且随着时间的推移，前者的影响出现大幅度的增长趋势，而城镇人口对化学需氧量和氨氮排放量的显著影响出现先递增后大幅下降趋势。同时，城市化率对该地区生产总值的影响在显著下降。化学需氧量、氨氮排放量对二氧化硫排放量的影响在显著增加，而后者对二氧化硫排放物的影响已经显著超过了前者对二氧化硫排放量的影响。另外，除了PM_2.5、PM₁₀仍然是常见的首要污染物之外，O₃成为了又一首要污染物之一。

Abstract: Based on the history data of related social and economical data from the statistical yearbook from 2007 to 2016 and the air quality factors data monthly from online testing website from Dec. 2014 to Nov. 2016, the six cites in Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone are selected as the research samples. Its distribution characteristics of social and economical factors and air quality are analyzed by the bivariate correlation analysis. The results show that urban population affects illustrately the total GDP and the soot emissions, in which the former influence increases greatly. In addition, the influence of urban population on chemical oxygen demand and ammonia emissions appears to increase firstly and then decline. At the same time, the influence of chemical oxygen demand and ammonia nitrogen emissions on sulfur dioxide emissions increases significantly, while the latter has a more significant influence. In addition, O₃ becomes the new top major air pollutants besides PM₁₀ and PM_2.5.