基于ARMA模型的成都市空气质量预测研究

The Prediction and Research of Air Quality in Chengdu Based on ARMA Model

摘要: 近年中国许多城市出现雾霾天气，环境污染日益严重，监控预测大气污染已成为空气质量研究中的重要组成部分。本文采用2013年1月到2015年12月成都市月环境空气质量综合指数，通过对数据序列进行平稳性、自相关和偏相关性的分析，建立成都市空气质量预测ARMA模型，检验模型的适用性，并基于实际数据进行预测分析。研究结果表明，所建立的ARMA模型能够有效预测成都市空气质量指数，从而为监控空气污染状况、合理运用环境污染治理措施提供依据。

Abstract: In recent years, many cities in China face the problem of smog. The problem of environmental pollution is becoming more and more serious. It has many negative effects on the lives of the resi-dents, so monitoring and predicting the atmospheric pollution has become an important part in the study of air quality. In this article we select ambient air quality composite index per month of Chengdu from January 2013 to December 2015, use the ARMA model (the autoregressive moving average model), establish the air quality forecasting ARMA model of Chengdu through the analysis of the stationarity, correlation and partial correlation of the datum, and test the application of model. The research results show that the ARMA model can effectively predict the ambient air quality composite index in Chengdu, so it provides a basis for accurately monitoring the situation of air pollution and the reasonable use of environmental pollution control measures.