负利率对养老金替代率和储蓄率影响的研究

The Study of the Influence of the Negative Interest Rate on Pension Replacement Rate and Saving Rate

摘要: 基于世代交替模型(OLG模型)和简单目标储蓄理论的两阶段模型分析研究负利率对养老模型中的储蓄率和实际储蓄率的影响，继而得出实际利率小于−1时，储蓄率与养老金替代率成负相关。随着养老金替代率的下调。当中央银行实行负利率的时候，养老储蓄率会上升，而利率降低则会导致实际储蓄率上升。鉴于实行负利率会导致储蓄率上升，进而对经济产生负面影响的结果，因此得出国内不能实行名义负利率的结论。

Abstract: This mainly draws a conclusion that the savings rate and pension replacement rate have a negative correlation when the interest rate is less than −1, which is based on two-stage model analysis of the impact of negative interest rates generational model (OLG model) and the simple theory of pension savings target model and the actual savings rate savings rate. The retirement savings rate will rise when the central bank implements the negative interest rates and the lower interest rates will lead to the rise of the actual savings rate with the pension replacement rate being lower. In view of the fact that implementation of negative interest rates will lead to the increase of the savings rate, and has a negative impact on the economy, the negative interest rates cannot be implemented in the country.