经济对新疆地区人口迁移影响定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Economic Impact on Population Migration in Xinjiang

摘要: 民族地区经济对少数民族人口的流动影响具有什么样的规律，长期以来，仅限于理论套用和粗线条的定性分析，缺少客观性数据分析和历史性态势描述。本文试图使用定量方法以新疆地区为例研究经济因素对人口迁移问题的影响。首先，分析了省际间人口迁移的空间格局和历史演变。其次，建立统计学模型研究我国人口迁移圈的影响因素。本文在经典人口迁移模型分析基础上，构建了适合民族地区人口迁移的理论模型。利用Matlab对模型假设的影响因子进行相关性分析，确定模型的合理性，通过SPSS 19.0主成分回归确定模型系数，得到民族地区人口迁移的实证模型。

Abstract: What kind of rules that economy in the ethnic minority regions impacts on the flow of population of ethnic minorities is ambiguous. For a long time, the qualitative analysis, limited to the theory apply and thick lines, is the main method. And this method is described with lack of objective data analysis and historical trend. This paper tries to use quantitative method to study the problem of population migration. Firstly, we analyze the spatial construction and historical changes of migration among provinces. Secondly, influence factors of population migration among provinces in China are focused on. In this paper, the suitable theory model of population migration for ethnic areas is built based on the classical population migration model analysis. By analysis on the influencing factors, the model is proved reasonable. Proposing the hypothesis of the coefficient of the model through the principal component regression analysis by MATLABA, the model is proved reasonable, and the empirical model of population migration in ethnic minority areas is got at last by SPSS 19.0.