广东进出口与三大产业的关系研究

The Relationship between Guangdong Import-Export and the Three Major Industries

摘要: 本文先对广东省的进出口总额进行分析，建立相应的实用单变量动态灰色时间序列预测模型GM(1,1)，分析进出口总额的内在变化趋势，模拟预测效果佳，然后进一步探讨进出口总额和广东三大产业生产总值的影响关系，建立多变量灰色时间序列预测模型GM(1,4)，经检验模型的拟合预测效果比较良好，能反映广东省进出口总额影响三大产业生产总值方面的动态关系，能够比较准确预测未来的生产总值进而明确三大产业发展的方向。

Abstract: In this paper, the univariate dynamic Gray Model of time series GM (1,1) is established to analyze the inherent tendency of the total import-export volume in Guangdong Province, and the fore-casting value accurately agrees with the actual value; then to explore the relationship between the total import-export volume and the production of three major industries in Guangdong. After es-tablishing the multivariate Gray Model of time series GM (1,4) on the examination, the fitting value is found precise. Thus, the model can better reflect the dynamic relationship between three major industry and total import-export volume in Guangdong in terms of time, which can provide a scientific basis to develop foreign trade policy for the relevant department.