基于贝叶斯网络的城市轨道交通应急系统可靠性分析

Research on Reliability Analysis of Urban Rail Transit Emergency System Based on Bayesian Network

摘要: 通过分析城市轨道交通应急系统可靠性评价指标体系结构，建立了基于贝叶斯网络的城市轨道交通应急系统可靠性评价的贝叶斯模型。最后，以某地铁为例，建立基于贝叶斯的应急系统可靠性的模型，并利用贝叶斯推理及BayesiaLab工具进行了可靠性的计算。对计算结果进行了分析，并给出了提高该地铁应急系统可靠性的几点措施。

Abstract: Urban rail transit emergency problem is very complicated, which is affected by many uncertain factors. In view of this, considering the advantages of Bayesian network in solving uncertainty problems, through the analysis of reliability of city track traffic emergency system evaluation index system, this paper has established the Bayesian model to evaluate the reliability of city rail transit emergency system. Finally, taking a subway as an example, the reliability of emergency system model is established based on Bayesian network and the calculation is carried out by using Bayesian’s reasoning and BayesiaLab tools. By analyzing the calculation results, some measures of improving reliability of the subway emergency system are given.