基于改进的AHP的财政风险预警指标权重的研究

The Study on the Indicator Weight of Financial Risk Based on the Improved Analytic Hierarchy Process

摘要:

江苏省财政运行状况中的风险问题日益严重，建立江苏省财政风险预警体系，构建符合江苏省实际情况的财政风险分析系统，实现财政风险管理的规范化、科学化、系统化、前瞻化尤为重要。基于此建立了江苏省财政风险预警的指标体系，运用改进的层次分析法(AHP)衡量指标体系中各指标的权重。运用三标度法构建关系矩阵，同时通过建立的简单、易于编码的关系函数求出AHP的判断矩阵，采用matlab分别对江苏省财政风险的一、二级指标的权重进行求解，为后续建立江苏省财政风险分析系统工作奠定基础。

Abstract: The risk in the fiscal operation in Jiangsu has become more and more serious. It is important to build the early-warning system for financial risk and the system for financial risk analysis for Jiangsu. To realize the standardization, scientization, systematization and foresight for the management of the financial risk is particularly important. So we build the early-warning indicator system for financial risk, and use the im- proved Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to measure the weight of each indicator. Building the relational matrix with three-demarcation method and getting the judgment matrix with the relational function are dis- cussed in this paper. Matlab is used to solve the weight problem of indicator in each level respectively, which will lay the foundation for the subsequent establishment of system for financial risk analysis in Jiangsu.