基于隔离人群的SEIRS模型研究香港新冠肺炎传播趋势

To Study the Transmission Trend of COVID-19 in Hong Kong Based on SEIRS Model of Quarantined Population

摘要: 由于二次感染及“复阳”问题的出现，以及隔离人群变量的增加，本文在SEIR传染病模型基础上，建立含有隔离人群的SEIRS模型。使用香港第五波新冠疫情数据，通过最小二乘法求得含有隔离人群的SEIRS模型中各参数最优解，并使用Python软件模拟得到新冠病毒传播趋势。结果显示：含有隔离人群的SEIRS模型与香港新冠肺炎的实际传播走势较为一致。表明增加有效的隔离手段，如建立方舱医院等方式，能提升隔离率，使感染人群数量不断下降，从而以最大力量保护人民生命安全。

Abstract: Due to the emergence of secondary infection and “re-infection”, as well as the increase of quaran-tined population variables, a SEIRS model was established based on the SEIR epidemic model with quarantined population. Using the data of the fifth wave of COVID-19 in Hong Kong, the least square method was used to obtain the optimal solution of each parameter in the SEIRS model containing the quarantined population, and the spread trend of COVID-19 was simulated by Python software. The result shows: the SEIRS model containing quarantined population is consistent with the actual transmission trend of COVID-19 in Hong Kong. It shows that increasing effective isolation methods, such as the establishment of mobile cabin hospitals, can improve the isolation rate, reduce the number of infected people, so as to protect people's lives as much as possible.